Do tariffs lead to a recession? Donald Trump’s warnings on the economy, the wall of the wall, and the prospect of more tariffs

But if the tariffs cause a recession and significant price increases, as many economic analysts expect, a plunging approval rating might be only the beginning of his problems. While Mr. Trump may not be running for re-election, he will still be supported by many Republicans who were against tariffs in the first place. Half-dozen Republican senators have supported a bill to limit the president’s authority to impose tariffs. The time for opposition to build is not over despite the fact that this is nowhere near enough to overcome a presidential veto.

If anything, Mr. Trump and the Republicans today could be especially vulnerable, as so much of his political strength is built on the economy. Throughout his time as a politician, he usually earned his best ratings on his handling of economic issues. His reputation as a successful businessman, and his economic stewardship in his first term, has helped him. He won the last election, despite enormous personal liabilities, in no small part because voters were frustrated by high prices and economic upheaval that followed the end of the pandemic.

In New York Times/Siena College national surveys last fall, more than 40 percent of voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2024 but not 2020 said that the economy or inflation was the most important issue to their vote.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s said to NPR last week that consumer confidence was already on the decline. He believes that a recession is possible as a result of the possibility of even more tariffs being announced.

In a report titled ” There Will Be Blood,” JP Morgan increased its risk of a global recession from 40% to 60%.

Jamie Dimon warned investors in his annual letter that the tariffs will lead to inflation and prompted many to consider a greater probability of a recession.

There are growing calls for Trump to delay or reduce the tariffs coming from voices on Wall Street, Capitol Hill and around the world. Administration officials said on Sunday that more than fifty countries have reached out to begin negotiations and that the tariffs won’t be delayed.

Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, downplayed the idea of a recession in an interview with “Meet the Press” on Sunday. Pointing to March’s better-than-expected jobs report, he said he sees “no reason that we have to price in a recession.”

There is no fixed rule about how long NBER takes to identify a recession after a decline has started. According to the website, past determinations have taken anywhere from four to 21 months.

Since 1978, the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee made up of top American economists has declared the beginning and end of the cycles.

For example, it announced in June 2020 that the U.S. had officially entered a pandemic-induced recession months earlier, in February. It announced over a year later that the 2020 recession had ended in April after just two months, making it the shortest U.S. recession on record.

A shrinking economy can cause a cascade of stress that can affect consumers, companies and the stock market according to Fidelity.

According to Merriam-Webster, a Depression is defined by widespread unemployment and large pauses in economic activity. NBER does not specifically identify depressions, but says the U.S. is generally regarded to have last experienced one in the 1930s.